Why China is Shrinking VERY Fast
Why China is Shrinking VERY Fast
For 50% off with HelloFresh PLUS free shipping, use code REALLIFELORE50 at https://bit.ly/46lNrFG
Watch more than 24 additional exclusive RealLifeLore videos on Nebula in Modern Conflicts: https://nebula.tv/modernconflicts
Please Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP5tjEmvPItGyLhmjdwP7Ww
Select video clips courtesy of Getty Images
Select video clips courtesy of the AP Archive
Special thanks to MapTiler, OpenStreetMap Contributors, and GEOlayers
https://www.maptiler.com/copyright/
https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright
https://aescripts.com/geolayers/
As an American, I would like to correct you RLL, India is NOT the most populated country that title goes to China because China’s population stands at around 1.45 billion while India is well under 1.4 billion. I also tend to find that the least developed countries (extremely authoritarian countries) in the world like China will have the fastest-growing economies during this century because of manpower and workforce population. LDC’s working population in 2023 is currently 615 million and will increase drastically to 1.94 billion people. DRC, a country in Africa that is known to be the strongest ally of China currently has a workforce population of 52.15 million and will increase 5 folds to 287.10 million by 2100. At this point, I would not be surprised if DRC surpasses France in total overall nominal GDP in dollars during this century. China will inevitably surpass the US in superpower and economy no doubt about that but the question is when. DRC and North Korea are a couple of China’s strongest allies.
So you went to India, counted every single person there, and then went to China, and counted every single person there? Otherwise, you need to cite your sources and compare them with RLLs sources. Does India execute 1000s of people per year? No, China does. Is it really that hard to believe that India has more people than China? It shouldn’t be.
India actually surpassed China in population a few months ago.
I think there was a missed opportunity to talk about how work culture has become just as crippling to the childbirth rate, but there are so many factors that’re damning China for the next century.
slowed population growth is bad, but the fact that their richest/most educated people are leaving the country as fast as possible, and nobody is immigrating, is a far bigger problem. They’re also particularly vulnerable to climate change, and a lot of their growth up to this point has been illusory. Buildings projects that nobody needs add to GDP but it’s just a bubble with no substance.
That’s actually something that’s very similar to Japan!
@TheStrangeBloke The people going out of china is negligeble and even then most of them are going back to china and not staying permanently in other countrues. Look at the statista graphs you will see it
@u2be user 10,000 educated rich people have greater economic value than 100 million peasants.
Slightly unrelated but the official Brazilian census just reported 203 million people which is far below the official numbers of around 216 million you will see if you google it. Population growth was very slow as well. A true China census might indicate their population is actually a good bit lower than what is believed. Birth rates look VERY bad.
Even officially recorded Brazilian births have collapsed in the last 10 years. Brazil has been well below replacement level for around 20 years now
Good.
@Tuatha Tuna Not particularly as it is dysgenic fertility.
Humans still existing by the end of this century? That is optimism.
U were that guy that commented on that minecraft YouTubers video I remember
I hope you two meet somehow
@Fofoit’s a bot.. Look at the profile
I lived in China, speak the language, and worked with local Chinese businesses. Yet, because I am not Han and I am not another local 少数民族 (minority ethnic group), I was never allowed to assimilate. Even my friends who are completely fluent and married to local Chinese people aren’t ever allowed to assimilate. Being consistently othered is tiring. It drains you, saps you of energy.
Large scale long lasting immigration into an ethno-centric country like China is unlikely to happen, and there certainly won’t be enough migrants for China to deal with its coming demographic crisis.
Most leave. My brother in law is Chinese, they immigrated to Canada when he was 10. His family did amazing in Canada. He has to go back once a year to do banking. And he hates it. They always go to Japan for a week while waiting for the banking to be done. Canada is getting many even million of imitation form China every few years. We just jumped to 40 million this year. His family was also allowed to have more children in Canada. Which was one of the reasons they immigrated. His grandmother survived The great leap forward. It seems the gov when it comes to population, is always backwards and reductive. And as we can see from the tens of millions of missing female Chinese women. That was wast to see as a result.
Indeed. As a Chinese person I would say that China might be among the countries that are most unwelcoming to immigrants. Ethno-centric countries have cohesion as a great strength, but the demographic crisis will become almost inevitable when the birth rate drops.
I feel like lots of countries in East Asia are. They are just as developed (if not more) than European and North American countries yet unlike the west they want to maintain a homogenous society. I get that, Asian culture is beautiful and should be preserved, but countries like Korea, China, and Japan have to start letting immigration into their countries the same way America, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Europe did. It would benefit their economies and solve their population problems.
When the age diagram looking the working age population was showed, you forgot a very crucial detail.
The retirement age in China is 60 for men and 55-50 for women.
They are looking to raise the retirement age and the horrible air polution in urban areas helps to make sure people don’t live as long, but this is a huge issue that adds onto the existing one of a birth rate below replacement rate.
I feel like anytime a country tries to do some kind of population control, it always backfires.
Or in China’s case, it works TOO well
@ZeeDeeit worked well for having sons. But they are missing so many younger women, dudes are having to fight over wives. It’s a women’s market for husbands. It makes violin and such worse for women and girls as well. Most population control measures always work only short term but massively collapse after. I studied Anthropology. It is extremely common. And they would have been aware of it when they implement the one child policy. My brother in law is Chinese. He has been great helping me understand it form the Chinese cultural perspective.
We dont know the ramifications yet. As the world progress AI will replace many many jobs and im certain that it will happen in china too. Factories wont need people anymore but ai
Does it really though?
@Icia Jay The “male surplus” is blown out of proportion as it turns out that china overcounted their population by approx 200 million
It recently came out that China was likely over counting their population to the tune of 100 million people. So they probably became the second largest country some time in 2018 and possibly all the numbers you mention in this video should be adjusted by 5 years or more.
I hear it’s a good deal worse than that. But sadly, it will take a major change at the top before we finally get real population numbers. And who knows when that will happen?
At least once, with Deng, it happened without any great bloodshed. So there’s a little hope for something other than some grim disaster to finally get at the truth.
@LD-Orbs I’m by no means very knowledgeable on China but everything I learned about the central government’s relationship with the provincial governments is that there is always tremendous pressure to meet expectations. This has led to fluffing all metrics to exaggerate or hide information. It wouldn’t surprise me there is pressure to overinflate population numbers.
True. Under-reporting deaths, increasing birthrate numbers to receive more funding/justify policies, and even counting people who emigrated out of China seem to be major factors in that. It certainly paints a more dire picture for China than even what this video shows.
The only source I could find on this was “Brownstone Research” which does not have the best track record.
It’s a super ominous feeling knowing that China really only has about 7-10 years to realize it’s geopolitic goals before it becomes increasingly improbable and with the United States posturing itself the way it has all signs are pointing to a confrontation.
I don’t think that’s a must thing. They could actually do it later too if they would be having enough economic and military prowess.
I feel like the effect of the famine in 1959-61 is an underrated influence on people’s willingness to go along with the one child policy. If you/your parents just survived a massive famine, and then you get told it will happen again unless you quit having kids, that must have been a huge motivation.
So what this really is, is a lesson in how playing on very real fears widespread across a population can lead to panicked decisions that have serious consequences down the road. Of course this never happens anywhere else either /s
There were a lot of people who ignored it still, especially in rural areas where it was harder to enforce (and also where the death tolls of the famine were highest). China Wakes, an investigative journalism book from the 90s has a pretty long chapter of it. Oftentimes (but not always), officials who were sent to enforce the policy could be paid off or would decide on the spot to charge a fee. The flip side of that are the forced abortions carried out by the state.
Without birth control, an agricultural country must suffer famine cyclically. Population growth is exponential but land and resources are constants. It was not only 1959-1961 that told this story, there were dozens of such stories, told in ancient Chinese history.